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Will Nippon Steel initiate legal action if their bid is blocked by February 8, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Publicly available court filings or official statements from Nippon Steel
Story
Nippon Steel Alleges White House Influence in $14.9 Billion U.S. Steel Bid as Biden Faces Decision in 15 Days
Dec 24, 2024, 12:17 AM
Nippon Steel has alleged that the White House exerted 'impermissible undue influence' over the national security review of its $14.9 billion bid for U.S. Steel, indicating potential legal action if the acquisition is blocked. The U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment (CFIUS) has failed to reach a consensus regarding the national security risks associated with the deal, leaving President Joe Biden to make the final decision within 15 days. Biden has been opposed to the deal since March, and reports suggest he is likely to block it. The deadlock in the review process has raised concerns among stakeholders, with U.S. Steel's CEO warning that foreign investment could be adversely affected. Nippon Steel has expressed confidence that the merits of the acquisition will be fairly evaluated. The situation continues to develop as the deadline for Biden's decision approaches.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Pursue legal action • 25%
Propose revised terms • 25%
Seek alternative partnerships • 25%
Abandon acquisition plans • 25%
Legal Challenge • 25%
Other • 25%
Abandonment of Deal • 25%
Negotiation for Terms • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Case dismissed • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
U.S. government wins • 25%
Nippon Steel wins • 25%
Nippon Steel • 33%
U.S. Steel • 33%
Both Simultaneously • 34%