Official election results from the North Carolina State Board of Elections

Trump Leads Harris by 3% in AtlasIntel Poll, Ahead in Key Swing States

Oct 19, 2024, 09:33 PM

Recent polling data and prediction markets indicate that former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in national and battleground state polls ahead of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. AtlasIntel, recognized for its accuracy in the 2020 election cycle, reports Trump leading Harris nationally by 3.1%, with 50.7% support to Harris's 47.6%, based on a survey of 4,180 likely voters conducted from October 12 to 17. In key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin, Trump holds narrow leads ranging from 0.3% to 3.3%, while Harris leads in North Carolina by a small margin. Betting markets like Kalshi show Trump ahead with 56% overall odds and leading in battleground states including Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. RealClearPolitics averages also reflect Trump's advantage in all battleground states. Additionally, Nate Silver's latest election model update gives Trump a 51.6% chance of winning the Electoral College.