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Will Kamala Harris receive over 75% support from Black voters in the 2024 election?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Exit polls and official election results analyzed by major media outlets
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Pew Research Poll: Harris Leads Trump 48% to 47%, Black Voter Support at 78% for Harris, 15% for Trump
Oct 12, 2024, 11:35 AM
A recent national poll conducted by Pew Research indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 1 percentage point, with Harris at 48% and Trump at 47%. The poll highlights significant demographic divides, showing Trump leading among White voters (55% to 41%), while Harris has strong support from Black voters (79% to 14%) and also leads among Hispanic (54% to 38%) and Asian voters (62% to 30%). Additionally, a series of polls focusing on Black voters reveal a substantial shift in support, with Harris receiving 78% compared to Trump's 15%. This marks a decrease in support for Trump among Black voters compared to previous elections, where he garnered 9% in 2020 and 7% in 2016. The data suggests that if these trends hold, it could represent the Republican Party's best performance among Black voters since 1976, particularly driven by a 20% support rate among Black men.
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