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Market
Will Joseph Aoun strengthen ties with the United States by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Lebanese and US governments, and major international news outlets
Story
Lebanon Elects US-Backed Army Chief Joseph Aoun as President, Ending Two-Year Vacancy
Jan 9, 2025, 01:11 PM
Lebanon's Parliament has elected Army Chief Joseph Aoun as the country's new president, ending a two-year leadership vacuum since October 2022. In the second round of voting, Aoun secured 99 out of 128 parliamentary votes, surpassing the required two-thirds majority. His election is seen as diminishing the influence of Hezbollah and Iran in Lebanese politics, as Aoun is backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia. The 60-year-old army commander, who has led the Lebanese Armed Forces since 2017, was sworn in after the parliamentary session and became Lebanon's 14th president. Aoun is expected to address Lebanon's ongoing financial and social challenges and aims to stabilize the crisis-hit nation amid regional tensions.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Majority Support • 25%
Equal Support and Opposition • 25%
Minority Support • 25%
No Support • 25%
Military reforms • 25%
Economic development • 25%
Diplomatic relations • 25%
Refugee policy • 25%
Political reforms • 25%
Economic reforms • 25%
Both political and economic reforms • 25%
No major reforms • 25%
Ceasefire maintained • 25%
Ceasefire violated by both • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Lebanon • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Initiatives for return to Palestine • 25%
Decreased rights in Lebanon • 25%
Increased rights in Lebanon • 25%
No significant change • 25%