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Will Jimmy Lai's conviction be upheld by end of 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Hong Kong Judiciary announcements and official court documents
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Hong Kong's Top Court Begins Trial Over 2019 Protests Involving Jimmy Lai, Martin Lee, and Margaret Ng
Jun 24, 2024, 05:46 AM
Hong Kong's highest court has commenced its first trial over the unlawful assembly convictions of several high-profile democrats, including former media mogul Jimmy Lai, Martin Lee, Margaret Ng, Cyd Ho, Lee Cheuk-yan, Leung Kwok-hung, and Albert Ho, related to the 2019 pro-democracy protests. The case, heard by a senior British judge, has intensified the debate over the role of foreign judges in Hong Kong's judiciary amid a national security crackdown.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Conviction Upheld • 33%
Conviction Overturned • 33%
New Trial Ordered • 33%
Life imprisonment • 25%
Imprisonment less than life • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Mistrial or retrial • 25%
Convicted of all charges • 25%
Convicted of some charges • 25%
Acquitted of all charges • 25%
Mistrial declared • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Acquittal • 25%
Conviction • 25%
Ongoing trial • 25%
Other • 25%
Convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment • 25%
Convicted with a lesser sentence • 25%
Acquitted of all charges • 25%
Mistrial or trial delayed beyond 2024 • 25%
Guilty • 25%
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Mistrial • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%