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Will Japan and Russia engage in further military confrontations by December 31, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Japan's Defense Ministry or Russia's Ministry of Defense, major news outlets
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Japan Scrambles Jets, Fires Flares After Russian Aircraft Violates Airspace Three Times
Sep 23, 2024, 02:24 PM
Japan's Defense Ministry reported that a Russian IL-38 patrol aircraft violated Japanese airspace over Hokkaido's Rebun Island on three separate occasions on September 23. The incursions lasted for 1 minute, 30 seconds, and 1 minute respectively. In response, Japan's Self-Defense Force scrambled F-15 and F-35 fighter jets, which issued radio warnings and deployed flares to warn off the intruding aircraft. This marked the first time Japan has used flares in response to an airspace violation since 2019. Defense Minister Minoru Kihara confirmed the violations and stated that Japan has lodged a serious protest with Moscow. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned the airspace breaches, emphasizing the seriousness of the situation.
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Yes • 50%
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Russia apologizes • 25%
Russia denies wrongdoing • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other • 25%
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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Russia issues apology • 25%
Russia ignores protest • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
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Russia issues formal apology • 25%
Russia denies wrongdoing • 25%
Russia promises to avoid future violations • 25%
No significant response from Russia • 25%
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No • 50%