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Will Iran's Supreme Leader revoke the fatwa against nuclear weapons by mid-2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from Iran's Supreme Leader or credible reports from major news outlets
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Iran's Kharrazi Claims Technical Capability for Nuclear Weapons on Al-Mayadeen TV, Cites Fatwa as Barrier Amid Existential Threat
Nov 1, 2024, 02:56 PM
Kamal Kharrazi, a senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stated in an interview with Al-Mayadeen TV that Iran possesses the technical capabilities to produce nuclear weapons. He emphasized that the only barrier to this development is a 'fatwa' issued by the Supreme Leader, which currently prohibits the pursuit of nuclear armament. Kharrazi also indicated that Iran's nuclear doctrine could be altered if the country faces what he termed an 'existential threat.' This statement reflects ongoing concerns regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions and its potential responses to perceived threats.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Complete suspension of nuclear program • 25%
Continuation with increased transparency • 25%
No change in current policy • 25%
Acceleration of nuclear development • 25%
President replaced • 25%
Supreme Leader replaced • 25%
Both replaced • 25%
No change • 25%
