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Will Iran publicly declare intent to target US bases by November 30, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Iranian government or credible news agency reports
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Iran Warns U.S. of Retaliation Against Military Bases Supporting Israeli Attacks, Including Missile Warehouses and Drones
Oct 25, 2024, 08:42 PM
Iran has issued a stern warning to the United States regarding potential military actions involving American bases in the region. Iranian officials stated that if attacks are limited to military bases, missile warehouses, and drones, Iran would refrain from retaliation. However, the Foreign Ministry of Iran communicated an emergency message via a third country, specifically the Swiss Embassy, declaring that any American base utilized to refuel and support an Israeli attack would be considered a legitimate target for Iranian retaliatory strikes. Furthermore, Iran has conveyed through diplomatic channels, including communications with over ten countries hosting U.S. bases, that any attack originating from these bases would provoke a proportional response from Iran.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Military installations • 25%
Civilian infrastructure • 25%
Cyber infrastructure • 25%
Other • 25%