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Market
Will initial jobless claims exceed 230,000 for the week ending June 15, 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Above 230,000 • 50%
230,000 or below • 50%
US Department of Labor
Story
US Initial Jobless Claims Rise by 8,000 to 229,000, Highest Since Early May
Jun 6, 2024, 12:43 PM
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose to 229,000 for the week ending June 1, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week. This figure is higher than the market expectation of 220,000 and marks the highest reading since the eight-month high of 232,000 recorded in early May. Continued jobless claims also increased slightly to 1.792 million for the week ending May 25, up by 2,000 from the previous week and matching the forecast of 1.79 million. The four-week average for initial claims was 222,000, down by 1,000. The labor market shows signs of cooling, but there are no early signs of a significant retrenchment. The greatest increases in initial jobless claims were observed in Minnesota (+2.8k), California (+2.4k), and Pennsylvania (+1.6k), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-2.7k), Texas (-1.8k), and Tennessee (-1.2k).
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225,000 to 230,000 • 25%
230,001 to 235,000 • 25%
Above 235,000 • 25%
Below 215,000 • 25%
215,000 to 230,000 • 25%
230,001 to 245,000 • 25%
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235,000 to 245,000 • 25%
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Decrease below 1.7 million • 33%
Stable between 1.7 million and 1.8 million • 34%
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