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Market
Will Giuseppe Conte face an internal leadership challenge within M5S by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from M5S or credible news reports
Story
M5S Votes to Remove Grillo as Guarantor, Abolishes Two-Term Limit
Dec 8, 2024, 10:14 PM
In a significant internal vote, members of Italy's Five Star Movement (M5S) have decisively voted to remove Beppe Grillo from his role as the party's guarantor, with 80.56% in favor of the change. The vote, which also saw the elimination of the two-term limit for elected officials, marks a pivotal moment in the party's history. Giuseppe Conte, the current leader, celebrated the outcome as an 'explosive wave' of change, indicating a desire to 'turn the page' on the party's past. The vote was a direct challenge to Grillo's influence, following his satirical letter to Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein suggesting Conte as a potential leader. The outcome sets the stage for potential legal battles over the party's symbol and future direction, with Grillo hinting at possible legal actions and the creation of local lists to challenge the M5S.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Remains Deputy Prime Minister • 25%
Resigns from Deputy Prime Minister • 25%
Removed from office • 25%
Takes on a different political role • 25%
Remains Deputy PM • 25%
Resigns from position • 25%
Elected to a higher office • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New legislation passed • 25%
Court challenge successful • 25%
Public protests • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
