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Will fentanyl-related deaths in the US decrease by the end of 2024?

3

China•White House•PRC

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports

Story

China to Regulate Three Essential Chemicals Used in Fentanyl Production, White House Confirms

Aug 6, 2024, 12:20 PM

China announced it will begin additional control and regulation of three essential chemicals used in the production of illicit fentanyl. The White House confirmed this move, describing it as a positive step in the fight against fentanyl. The PRC's announcement on August 6, 2024, was welcomed by the U.S. Ambassador to China, who expressed hope for further progress in combating the fentanyl crisis. China will domestically control these chemicals.

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Will fentanyl seizures at US-Mexico border increase by 20% by June 30, 2025?

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Yes • 50%

No • 50%

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Will fentanyl seizures in the US decrease by the end of 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will other countries implement similar regulations on fentanyl precursor chemicals by the end of 2024?

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

What will be China's next regulatory action related to fentanyl or its precursors by the end of 2024?

Further regulation of additional chemicals • 25%

Other actions (e.g., international cooperation, public health campaigns) • 25%

No additional regulatory actions • 25%

Increased enforcement of current regulations • 25%

What will be the impact of China's regulation of fentanyl precursor chemicals on the US fentanyl crisis by the end of 2024?

Moderate decrease in fentanyl-related deaths and seizures • 25%

Increase in fentanyl-related deaths and seizures • 25%

Significant decrease in fentanyl-related deaths and seizures • 25%

No significant change in fentanyl-related deaths and seizures • 25%