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Will Eli Lilly's obesity drug surpass CagriSema in market share by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
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Story
Novo Nordisk Shares Drop 27% as CagriSema Misses Weight Loss Target in Phase 3 Trial
Dec 20, 2024, 11:00 AM
Novo Nordisk, Europe's largest company, saw its shares plummet by up to 27%, marking its worst trading day since April 2002, after its experimental obesity drug CagriSema failed to meet weight loss expectations in the Phase 3 REDEFINE 1 trial. The trial showed that patients treated with CagriSema achieved a 22.7% weight reduction after 68 weeks, falling short of the anticipated 25%. Additionally, only 57% of patients reached the highest dose after 68 weeks. Comparatively, patients receiving semaglutide 2.4 mg and cagrilintide 2.4 mg experienced weight losses of 16.1% and 11.8%, respectively, while the placebo group lost 2.3%. The disappointing results led to a significant sell-off, with the stock losing its 200-day moving average at $125 and trading 48% below its June high. Competitors such as Eli Lilly and Viking Therapeutics saw their shares rise in response to the news.
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