Exit poll data from major polling organizations such as Edison Research

New NBC Poll: Harris-Trump Race Deadlocked at 48% as Harris's 5-Point Lead Evaporates

Oct 13, 2024, 01:08 PM

According to a new NBC News national poll, the 2024 presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is now tied at 48% each, marking a significant shift from last month when Harris held a five-point lead. The poll indicates that any momentum Harris gained immediately following the last debate has dissipated, with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt stating, "As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped. The race is a dead heat." The survey also reveals that Harris is underperforming with Latino voters, while Trump maintains and even strengthens his grasp on this demographic. Some reports suggest that Trump is capturing more than 50% of the Hispanic vote, which would be the best performance for a Republican candidate since 2004. Trump is also showing increased support among Black voters, with CNN's Senior Data Reporter noting, "At this particular hour... Donald Trump's going to put up the best performance with Black voters since Richard Nixon in 1960." Additionally, the poll highlights that Trump's favorability ratings are improving, and voters are viewing his presidency more favorably compared to President Biden's term. Trump is gaining ground with independent voters, flipping previous deficits to leads in some cases. The NBC News poll also shows that when third-party candidates are included, Trump leads Harris by 47% to 46%. Meanwhile, a CBS News/YouGov poll shows Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin of 51% to 48%, down from previous months. These trends suggest a tightening race as the 2024 election approaches, with both candidates vying for crucial support among key demographics. The shift in polling underscores the challenges Harris faces in maintaining her lead, particularly as Trump capitalizes on increasing support from minority and independent voters.