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Market
Will diplomatic tensions between Poland and Belarus increase due to border wall construction by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Statements from Polish or Belarusian governments or reports from credible international news agencies
Story
Poland Plans 400-Kilometer Border Wall with Belarus by Mid-2025 Amid 'Hybrid War' to Combat Illegal Migration
Dec 29, 2024, 09:47 AM
Poland has announced plans to fortify its border with Belarus by constructing a 400-kilometer wall, aimed at preventing illegal migration. A senior Polish official stated that the construction is expected to be completed by mid-2025. This initiative is part of Poland's broader strategy to combat what it describes as a 'hybrid war' from Belarus, which has been accused of sending migrants into Central Europe. The Polish government has already taken measures to address the situation, including the use of force to deter illegal crossings.
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NATO • 25%
European Union • 25%
United States • 25%
None of the above • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic break • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Resolved diplomatically • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Escalated to EU intervention • 25%
Migration control • 25%
Other • 25%
Hybrid war deterrence • 25%
National security • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
