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Will Core PCE prices fall below 2% in Q4 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
US Bureau of Economic Analysis report on Q4 2024 Core PCE prices
Story
US GDP Grows 2.8% in Q3, Core PCE Prices at Lowest Since Q4
Oct 30, 2024, 12:31 PM
The U.S. economy showed mixed signals in the third quarter of 2024. The GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9% and down from the previous quarter's 3.0%. Core PCE prices, a key inflation measure, rose by 2.2%, exceeding the forecast of 2.1% but lower than the previous quarter's 2.8%. This marks the lowest level since 2.0% in Q4 last year and is slightly above the Fed's 2% target. Real consumer spending increased significantly by 3.7%, up from 2.8% in the previous quarter. Overall PCE prices, however, rose by only 1.5%, well below the expected 2.7% and previous 2.5%. These figures suggest a soft landing for the economy, with inflationary pressures easing but consumer spending remaining robust.
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