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Will China announce a large-scale economic stimulus package in 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Chinese government or major financial news outlets
Story
China Considers Yuan Weakening to 7.50 in 2025 as Trump Tariffs Loom, PBOC Reports
Dec 11, 2024, 08:09 AM
Chinese policymakers are reportedly considering allowing the yuan (CNY) to weaken in 2025 in response to looming tariffs from a potential second Donald Trump presidency. This potential move comes amid growing economic concerns and is seen as a strategy to mitigate trade pressures. Reports indicate that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) may contemplate allowing the yuan to depreciate to levels around 7.50 against the US dollar. The offshore yuan has already seen significant fluctuations, recently falling nearly 300 pips to 7.2815 against the dollar. Analysts suggest that this shift in monetary policy reflects broader economic worries, although experts caution that a large-scale stimulus is unlikely. The discussions coincide with China's annual economic work meeting, where top leaders are expected to outline policies for the upcoming year, emphasizing the need for a stable economic environment amid increasing trade tensions.
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Other major changes • 25%
Monetary policy easing • 25%
Infrastructure spending increase • 25%
Tax cuts • 25%
No major reforms • 25%
Financial sector reform • 25%
Real estate reform • 25%
Labor market reform • 25%
Infrastructure • 25%
Consumer incentives • 25%
Housing sector • 25%
Local government debt • 25%
Substantial improvement in employment rates • 25%
Major boost in industrial production • 25%
Other significant economic impact • 25%
Significant increase in GDP growth • 25%
