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Will China achieve its 2027 military modernization goals?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
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Pentagon's annual report or other reputable defense analysis reports
Story
Pentagon: China's Nuclear Warheads Surpass 600 Amid Corruption Affecting 2027 Goals
Dec 18, 2024, 06:08 PM
The Pentagon's annual report on China’s military power, released on Wednesday, reveals that China has rapidly expanded its nuclear arsenal, increasing the number of operational nuclear warheads from 400 to over 600 in just a year. This marks a significant growth, with China's nuclear stockpile nearly tripling since 2020 when it had around 200 warheads. The report estimates that China could possess more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030 and will continue to grow its stockpile through at least 2035. This expansion includes the development of new missile silos, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and advancements in missile technology, enabling China to target more U.S. cities and military facilities. Additionally, the report highlights that corruption within China's military, despite President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign, may have disrupted its progress toward its 2027 military modernization goals. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has faced deeply rooted problems of corruption, with several senior officials dismissed over suspicions of graft. Despite these issues, China continues to modernize its armed forces at a rapid pace.
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