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Market
Will a female candidate win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official results announced by the US Electoral College
Story
Trump Leads 2024 Race with 93.2% Chance of Winning Electoral College, 59% of White Women Vote
Oct 20, 2024, 11:23 AM
Recent polling data suggests that Donald Trump has a significant lead in the upcoming 2024 Presidential Election. According to RCP and Silver Bulletin polling, Trump now has a 93.2% chance of winning the Electoral College. Additionally, Trump is currently favored to win the white women's vote, with a 59% chance of securing their support. This demographic played a crucial role in the 2020 election, where Trump won 55% of the white women's vote against his opponent. The potential influence of the 'first female President' factor remains a question for this election cycle. National polling also supports Trump's strong position.
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