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Will a credible sabotage attempt on Norway gas pipelines be detected by February 28, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from security agencies or major news outlets confirming a thwarted attempt
Story
Britain, Germany, US Step Up Surveillance Over Fears of Russian Sabotage to Norway Gas Pipelines
Dec 8, 2024, 10:37 AM
Security officials in Britain have intensified surveillance around vital gas pipelines connected to Norway due to mounting fears that Russia could sabotage the UK's gas supply, potentially triggering blackouts. This heightened alert comes in response to concerns that Russia might target subsea energy links, prompting Britain, Germany, and the U.S. to step up North Sea surveillance, including the deployment of RAF and Poseidon P-8 anti-submarine planes. The Royal Air Force (RAF) is also on alert over the threat of sabotage to key gas pipelines, as reported by The Telegraph.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ukraine found solely responsible • 25%
Ukraine and other entities found responsible • 25%
Other entities found solely responsible • 25%
No conclusive outcome • 25%