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Will a candidate other than Trump or Biden win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by Nov 7?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcement from the U.S. Electoral College or major news networks
Story
Trump's Chances of Winning Election Surge to 76.3% According to Decision Desk HQ
Nov 6, 2024, 01:00 AM
As of November 6, 2024, Decision Desk HQ reports that Donald Trump's chances of winning the U.S. Presidential Election have significantly increased. Initially, Trump's probability of clinching the Electoral College was reported at 61%, but subsequent updates have shown a steady rise. The latest figures indicate that Trump now holds a 70% chance, with some reports suggesting it could be as high as 76.3%. Other reported probabilities include 63%, 71.5%, and 72%. This surge in probability is attributed to early returns coming in, reflecting a growing momentum in Trump's favor.
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