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Will 20% of China's Population Be Over 65 by 2030?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
China's National Bureau of Statistics or United Nations demographic reports
Story
China's Aging Population: 20% Over 65 by 2030, 37.4% by 2060, Silver Economy to Reach CNY30 Trillion
Dec 10, 2024, 02:25 AM
China is facing a significant demographic shift, with projections indicating that by 2030, individuals aged 65 and older will represent 20% of the total population, escalating to 37.4% by 2060. This trend is expected to substantially impact the economy, as the country's silver economy could reach CNY30 trillion (approximately USD4 trillion) by 2035, making up 10% of the nation's GDP. In certain cities, such as one with a population of 1.7 million, the aging trend is already evident, with roughly one-third of residents aged 60 or above. These cities are experiencing a decline in birth rates, evidenced by only 5,541 babies born last year, raising concerns about the future workforce and economic sustainability as young people continue to migrate away from these areas.
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