Major national polling aggregators such as FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics

Trump Widens Lead Over Harris to 54% in 2024 Election Prediction Markets

Oct 10, 2024, 05:57 AM

Former President Donald Trump has significantly increased his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in various prediction markets for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. According to Polymarket, Trump's odds of winning have surged to 54%, a 10 percentage point gap over Harris, who stands at 44%. This marks a notable rise from just a week ago when the race was tied. Trump also leads in key states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. On Kalshi, Trump has taken the lead for the first time, and he is now ahead on PredictIt as well. The increase in Trump's odds follows an endorsement from Elon Musk and a shift in public sentiment after recent campaign events. Trump’s lead widened by 7.4% since October 4th, with projections showing he is on the path to at least 281 electoral votes.