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Who will control major Syrian cities post-Assad ouster by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by Turkish-backed forces • 25%
Controlled by Kurdish forces • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and conflict monitoring organizations
Story
Erdoğan Vows to Crush PKK, YPG, and ISIS in Syria Amid Political Shifts
Dec 20, 2024, 11:04 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has declared that the time has come to neutralize terrorist organizations in Syria, emphasizing that this action is necessary to prevent threats from emerging south of Turkey's borders. Erdoğan specifically targeted the PKK and its affiliates, including the YPG, stating that their 'shelf life' has expired and that they are doomed to isolation with no future. He also mentioned that the heads of terrorist organizations such as ISIS and PKK-YPG will be crushed in the shortest time possible. Erdoğan's remarks come in the context of recent political shifts in Syria, following the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad, which has set the stage for intensified efforts against these groups.
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Equal control/shared control • 25%
Rebels control major cities • 25%
Government retains control • 25%
International peacekeepers deployed • 25%
Controlled by Kurdish forces • 25%
Other/Unclear control • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
No clear control in major cities • 25%
Rebels control majority of major cities • 25%
Control is evenly split • 25%
Government controls all major cities • 25%
Other • 25%
Pro-Iran/Russia leadership • 25%
Pro-Turkey leadership • 25%
Pro-Western leadership • 25%
Controlled by new Syrian government • 25%
Mixed control • 25%
Controlled by foreign powers • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
No clear control • 25%
Government control • 25%
Rebel control • 25%
Joint control • 25%
A pro-Iranian leader • 25%
A leader from the Syrian opposition • 25%
Other • 25%
A Western-backed leader • 25%
Increased government control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased opposition control • 25%
Independent leadership • 25%
No stable leadership • 25%
Pro-Western leadership • 25%
Pro-Iranian leadership • 25%
Other • 25%
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham • 25%
A new coalition government • 25%
A remnant of the Assad regime • 25%
Neutral leaders • 25%
Other • 25%
Pro-Western leaders • 25%
Pro-Russian leaders • 25%
Shared control • 25%
Another faction takes control • 25%
FSA retains control • 25%
Syrian government regains control • 25%
International Forces • 25%
Other • 25%
Rebel Groups • 25%
HTS • 25%
Other Rebel Group • 25%
Syrian Government • 25%
International Coalition • 25%