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Who will be most affected by the capture of Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada by the end of 2024?
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Mexico•Sinaloa Cartel•United States•Zambada•El Paso•Texas•Joaquín Guzmán López•Mexican•Culiacán•Sinaloa•Andrés Manuel López Obrador
Resolution / Starting Odds
Mexican Government • 25%
U.S. Government • 25%
Other Cartels • 25%
Sinaloa Cartel • 25%
Reports from local and international news agencies
Story
Sinaloa Cartel Leader 'El Mayo' Zambada Captured in El Paso Last Thursday
Jul 29, 2024, 02:10 PM
Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada, a top leader of Mexico's Sinaloa Cartel, was captured and brought to the United States under contentious circumstances last Thursday. Reports indicate that Zambada was tricked into boarding a plane to El Paso, Texas, where he was detained by U.S. authorities. His lawyer claims that Zambada was forcibly kidnapped by Joaquín Guzmán López, son of Joaquín 'El Chapo' Guzmán, and handed over to U.S. officials. The capture marks a significant blow to the Sinaloa Cartel, which has long been a dominant force in the drug trade. The Mexican government did not participate in the operation, and the arrest has prompted an investigation by Mexican authorities. In response to the arrest, 400 military personnel have been deployed to Culiacán, Sinaloa, to maintain order. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has appealed to cartels to avoid violence following the detentions.
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Mostly positive • 25%
Mostly negative • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New leader emerges • 25%
Leadership remains the same • 25%
Internal conflict or split • 25%
Dissolution of the cartel • 25%
High-ranking cartel members • 25%
Low-ranking cartel members • 25%
Non-cartel individuals • 25%
No additional individuals identified • 25%
Convicted on all charges • 25%
Convicted on some charges • 25%
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Trial ongoing • 25%
Guilty on all charges • 25%
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Guilty on all charges • 25%
Guilty on some charges • 25%
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Guilty • 25%
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Mistrial • 25%
No verdict • 25%
Ivan Archivaldo Guzman • 25%
Jesus Alfredo Guzman • 25%
Other • 25%
No new leader • 25%
Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada's son • 25%
Another high-ranking cartel member • 25%
Fragmentation into smaller groups • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Confirmed and 'El Chapito' arrested • 25%
Confirmed but 'El Chapito' not arrested • 25%
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Case unresolved • 25%
Convicted on all charges • 25%
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