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Who will be identified as the primary source of conflicting reports about Iran informing the US about the missile attack on Israel by the end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Iranian Government • 25%
US Government • 25%
UN Mission • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies such as Reuters, the Associated Press, or statements from the UN or involved governments
Story
Iran Notified Russia, US of Size and Timing Before Israel Attack
Oct 1, 2024, 06:16 PM
A senior Iranian official has confirmed that Iran notified both Russia and the United States in advance of its missile attack on Israel, including details about the size and timing of the attack. According to the official, the U.S. was alerted through diplomatic channels shortly before the attacks. This information was corroborated by multiple sources, including Reuters. However, conflicting reports emerged from Iran's UN mission, which stated that the U.S. was not informed prior to the attack and only received a warning afterward.
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Internal U.S. government source • 25%
External hacker group • 25%
Foreign government • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
IRGC • 25%
Iranian government • 25%
Proxy group • 25%
No specific identification • 25%
Iranian Government • 25%
Biden-Harris Administration • 25%
Israeli Government • 25%
Other • 25%
Verified Iranian officials • 25%
Anonymous sources • 25%
Western media fabrication • 25%
Other sources • 25%
President Joe Biden • 25%
Secretary of State Antony Blinken • 25%
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan • 25%
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin • 25%
U.S. Government • 25%
Israeli Government • 25%
Iranian Government • 25%
No confirmation/denial • 25%
Iranian hackers • 25%
Frustrated U.S. allies • 25%
Internal U.S. source • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
North Korea • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Benjamin Netanyahu • 25%
Ali Khamenei • 25%
United States • 25%
United Nations • 25%
European Union • 25%
Other • 25%
Focus on evidence credibility • 25%
Focus on geopolitical implications • 25%
Focus on regional tensions • 25%
Focus on US-Israel response • 25%