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Who will be identified as responsible for Yahya Sinwar's reported assassination by Dec 31, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Israeli Government • 25%
Internal Hamas Conflict • 25%
Other External Entity • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Official statements from Israeli authorities or credible investigative reports
Story
DNA Tests 99% Confirm Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar's Death
Oct 17, 2024, 02:07 PM
Israeli media and security forces have reported that DNA tests have confirmed with 99% certainty that the body of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been identified. Preliminary DNA tests and dental records have matched the body found in Gaza to Sinwar. The Israeli government ministers have been briefed on the possible assassination, and an official statement is expected soon. The Israeli police, IDF, and Shin Bet are conducting further tests to establish a complete identification. Ch.12 reporting indicates that Sinwar was eliminated.
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Similar markets
Israel • 25%
Iran • 25%
A third-party country • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Israeli Mossad • 25%
Iranian dissidents • 25%
A rival faction within Hamas • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Internal dissidents • 25%
Foreign intelligence agencies • 25%
Criminal organizations • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel • 25%
United States • 25%
Internal Hamas Conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation of the strike • 25%
Support for the strike • 25%
Calls for investigation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes, Identified • 25%
No, Not Identified • 25%
DNA Inconclusive • 25%
Body Not Found • 25%
Identified as senior Hamas leaders • 25%
Identified as mid-level operatives • 25%
Identified as low-level operatives • 25%
Identities not disclosed • 25%
