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Which party most influences adjustments to French pension reform by September 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Socialist Party • 25%
Republicans • 25%
La République En Marche! • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the French government or reputable news outlets reporting on the negotiation outcomes
Story
French PM Bayrou Rejects Pension Reform Suspension at 64, Opts for Renegotiation Amid No-Confidence Threat
Jan 14, 2025, 10:32 AM
French Prime Minister François Bayrou has ruled out any suspension or abrogation of the contentious pension reform, opting instead for a renegotiation with social partners. This decision comes ahead of his policy speech to the National Assembly, where he aims to outline his government's agenda and secure support for the 2025 budget. The pension reform, which raised the retirement age to 64, has been a focal point of negotiations with the Socialist Party (PS), which had demanded its suspension in exchange for not voting against the government in a no-confidence motion. Bayrou's stance is intended to avoid alienating his allies on the right, who have threatened to leave the government if the reform is suspended. The Prime Minister has indicated that social partners will be tasked with proposing adjustments to the reform by autumn, suggesting a review period before any potential changes to the retirement age in September.
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Les Républicains • 25%
La République En Marche! • 25%
Other • 25%
National Rally • 25%
La République En Marche! • 25%
Other • 25%
Les Républicains • 25%
Democratic Movement (MoDem) • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
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Renaissance gains majority • 25%
Other party gains majority • 25%
Republicans gain majority • 25%
La France Insoumise gains majority • 25%
La République En Marche! • 25%
Other • 25%
La France Insoumise • 25%
National Rally • 25%
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Full agreement with RN demands • 25%
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No concessions to RN • 25%
Budget not passed • 25%
No significant action from any party • 25%
La France Insoumise initiates further legal action • 25%
Socialist Party calls for further protests • 25%
Ecologist group proposes alternative budget • 25%
Budget delayed • 25%
Budget passed without major changes • 25%
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Budget rejected • 25%
Neither • 25%
Both spending cuts and tax increases • 25%
Tax increases only • 25%
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Withdrawn • 25%
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