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Which milestone will OpenAI announce for the $1 trillion AI model by 2026?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Milestone 1: Initial phase completion • 25%
Milestone 2: Mid-phase completion • 25%
Milestone 3: Final phase initiation • 25%
No milestones announced • 25%
Official announcements from OpenAI or credible news outlets
Story
Sam Altman Plans $1 Trillion AI Model for Physics and Fusion in 4-15 Years
Nov 17, 2024, 02:02 AM
Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, has revealed ambitious plans for AI development, aiming to spend $1 trillion on training an AI model. This model is intended to delve into the fundamental aspects of physics and potentially solve complex engineering challenges like nuclear fusion. Garry Tan, CEO of Y Combinator, disclosed that Altman's timeline for achieving Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) is estimated to be between 4 and 15 years, with a goal to increase spending by four orders of magnitude to reach the trillion-dollar mark.
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Level 2 • 25%
Level 3 • 25%
Level 4 • 25%
Level 5 • 25%
Surpasses human performance in a specific task • 25%
Achieves a breakthrough in natural language processing • 25%
Reaches a new level of general AI • 25%
Other • 25%
Level 2: Reasoners • 25%
Level 3: Agents • 25%
Level 4: Innovators • 25%
Level 5: Organizations • 25%
New AI Model • 25%
New Partnership • 25%
New AI Product • 25%
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Significant market disruption • 25%
Moderate market impact • 25%
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No noticeable impact • 25%
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Natural Language Processing • 25%
Computer Vision • 25%
Robotics • 25%
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Less than $150 billion • 25%
$150 billion to $175 billion • 25%
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Below $150 billion • 25%
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New safety protocols • 25%
Partnerships with other organizations • 25%
New AI safety research center • 25%
Other initiatives • 25%