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Which country will face the first major diplomatic conflict with the US under Trump's new administration by June 30, 2025?
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Elon Musk•Donald Trump•Musk•Trump•Washington Post•Elise Stefanik•UN•Michael Waltz•Marco Rubio•Rubio•Iran•Venezuela
Resolution / Starting Odds
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
Venezuela • 25%
Reports of diplomatic conflicts from credible news agencies like Reuters or AP News.
Story
Elon Musk Becomes Trump’s ‘First Buddy’ Amid Key Appointments Signaling Stricter Oil Sanctions
Nov 13, 2024, 10:44 PM
Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, has emerged as an influential figure in President-elect Donald Trump's administration. Musk has been actively involved in meetings, phone calls, and weighing résumés, effectively serving as Trump's unofficial co-president. This development has been widely reported, with Washington Post's headline describing Musk as Trump’s ‘first buddy’. Musk received significant attention and applause at a recent event at Mar-A-Lago. Meanwhile, Trump has made several key appointments, signaling a hawkish turn in his administration. Notable picks include Elise Stefanik for the UN, Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor, and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. Rubio's appointment could also signal stricter enforcement of oil sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.
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Similar markets
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
North Korea • 25%
Israel • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
Saudi Arabia • 25%
Other • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
North Korea • 25%
Conflict with China • 25%
Conflict with Russia • 25%
Middle East tensions • 25%
Other region • 25%
Middle East conflict • 25%
North Korea tensions • 25%
China-U.S. relations • 25%
Russia-Ukraine conflict • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
North Korea • 25%
Trade dispute • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic row • 25%
Other • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
North Korea • 25%
Middle East conflict • 25%
North Korea tensions • 25%
Russia-Ukraine situation • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
North Korea • 25%
Rejoining a trade agreement • 25%
Withdrawal from international organization • 25%
New military alliance • 25%
Increased sanctions on a country • 25%