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Market
What will Russia do following the airspace closure by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Launch Oreshnik missile • 25%
Conduct other missile tests • 25%
No military action • 25%
Increase military presence in Ukraine • 25%
Official statements from Russian military or government sources, along with corroboration from international news agencies.
Story
U.S. Warns of Potential Russian Experimental Hypersonic Missile Attack on Ukraine
Dec 11, 2024, 02:53 PM
U.S. officials have warned that Russia may launch another experimental Oreshnik missile, an intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile, at Ukraine in the coming days. This follows the closure of airspace above the Kapustin Yar Test Site Range from December 7th to December 15th. The U.S. does not consider the Oreshnik missile to be a game-changer on the battlefield but rather an attempt to terrorize Ukraine. In response, the U.S. is focused on providing Ukraine with the necessary air defenses to protect against Russian missiles and drones.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Scramble jets but no flares • 25%
Scramble jets and use flares • 25%
Issue diplomatic protest only • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military exercises • 25%
Other • 25%
China • 25%
South Korea • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Denial of any wrongdoing • 25%
Accusation of US provocation • 25%
Call for diplomatic discussions • 25%
No official response • 25%
Electronic warfare • 33%
Physical interception • 33%
No significant measures • 34%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Military drills • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military strikes on Ukraine • 25%
Diplomatic actions • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant actions • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 33%
Asset Seizures • 33%
Diplomatic Expulsions • 33%