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What will be the U.S. diplomatic response to the Iranian assassination plot by June 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Military action considered • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Official U.S. government statements or major news outlets
Story
DOJ Discloses Friday Iranian Plot to Assassinate Trump to Avenge Soleimani
Nov 12, 2024, 05:42 AM
The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) disclosed on Friday an Iranian murder-for-hire plot to assassinate former President Donald Trump. The scheme, allegedly orchestrated by Iranian officials, was reportedly motivated by a desire to avenge the killing of Qasem Soleimani. Farhad Shakeri, an asset of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, revealed to law enforcement that he had been ordered to surveil two Jewish individuals as part of a broader scheme. The mastermind behind the plot has been identified and pictured, although he remains at large.
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Denial maintained • 25%
Formal apology issued • 25%
Retaliatory measures announced • 25%
Diplomatic engagement initiated • 25%
Plot confirmed • 25%
Plot unconfirmed • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
No comment from authorities • 25%
Military action • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Military action against Iran • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Iran denies the plot • 25%
Iran confirms the plot • 25%
Iran remains silent • 25%
Iran blames another entity • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Condemnation of Iran • 25%
Support for Israel • 25%
Calls for Investigation • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Impose new sanctions on Iran • 25%
Issue a public condemnation • 25%
Provide military aid to Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Sanctions lifted • 25%
Direct negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant diplomatic action • 25%