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What will be the U.S. diplomatic response to the arrests in Venezuela by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic sanctions • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. State Department or the White House
Story
Venezuela Arrests Four Americans, Six Foreigners Over Alleged Plot to Assassinate Maduro, Says Diosdado Cabello
Sep 17, 2024, 08:36 PM
Venezuelan authorities have arrested four U.S. citizens, including an active Navy serviceman, on allegations of plotting to assassinate President Nicolás Maduro and destabilize the country. The arrests come nearly nine months after the Biden administration celebrated a prisoner swap with Venezuela, during which Maduro's regime promised not to detain more Americans. Venezuelan officials claim to have intercepted a CIA-linked plot involving six foreigners, including three Americans, and the seizure of 400 automatic rifles. The U.S. government has categorically denied any involvement in the alleged plot. The latest detainee was captured in Caracas while taking photos of military, oil, and power grid installations. Diosdado Cabello, Venezuela's Interior Minister, announced the arrests.
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Condemnation by UN • 25%
Sanctions by EU • 25%
Joint Statement by Multiple Countries • 25%
No Significant Reaction • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
US imposes sanctions on Venezuela • 25%
US engages in diplomatic talks with Venezuela • 25%
US takes no action • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Further Deterioration • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
Reinstate sanctions • 25%
Increase diplomatic pressure • 25%
Provide humanitarian aid • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No official response • 25%
Engagement in talks • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
OAS intervention • 25%
Joint intervention by UN and OAS • 25%
No significant international intervention • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sanctions on Maduro's regime • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
Increased sanctions on Venezuela • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant action • 25%