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What will be the trend for U.S. 30-year mortgage rates by June 30, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase to 7.5% or higher • 25%
Remain between 6.5% and 7.49% • 25%
Decrease to below 6.5% • 25%
Other • 25%
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly reports
Story
U.S. Mortgage Applications Plunge 12.6% to Lowest Since COVID Crash as 30-Year Rates Hit 6.97%
Jan 2, 2025, 12:16 PM
U.S. mortgage applications fell sharply over the two weeks ending December 27, 2024, with a decline of 12.6% compared to the previous period, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). This drop marks the worst two-week decline since the COVID crash. The MBA's 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.97% from 6.75% during the same period, reaching nearly a six-month high. The purchase index decreased by 7% to 136.7 from 157.1, while the refinance index fell by 23% to 395.1 from 617.5. The overall Mortgage Market Index dropped to 174.9 from 224.0, the lowest since February 2023. The increase in mortgage rates, which were the highest since early July, has significantly impacted housing demand, contributing to the sharp decline in mortgage applications.
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6.9% or lower • 25%
Above 7.5% • 25%
7.3% - 7.5% • 25%
7.0% - 7.2% • 25%
Decrease rates • 25%
Mixed decisions • 25%
Hold rates steady • 25%
Increase rates • 25%
4.8% - 5.0% • 25%
4.5% - 4.7% • 25%
Below 4.5% • 25%
Above 5.0% • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase • 25%
Fluctuations but end at same rate • 25%
No change • 25%
Below 3.5% • 25%
Above 4.5% • 25%
4.0% to 4.5% • 25%
3.5% to 4.0% • 25%
4.0% to 4.5% • 25%
Below 4.0% • 25%
Above 4.5% to 5.0% • 25%
Above 5.0% • 25%
Increase rates • 25%
Decrease rates • 25%
Maintain current rates • 25%
Other • 25%
Rate Hike • 25%
Other • 25%
No Change • 25%
Rate Cut • 25%
3.5% to 3.9% • 25%
Below 3.5% • 25%
4.0% to 4.5% • 25%
Above 4.5% • 25%
Decrease by more than 5% • 25%
Decrease by 0-5% • 25%
Increase by 0-5% • 25%
Increase by more than 5% • 25%