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What will be the status of Israeli northern residents' return to their homes by May 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority return safely • 25%
Partial return • 25%
No return due to safety concerns • 25%
Evacuation continues • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government or verified reports from international news agencies
Story
Israel Threatens Action if Hezbollah Does Not Withdraw to Litani River
Jan 5, 2025, 10:26 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has warned that if Hezbollah does not withdraw from Southern Lebanon, there will be no agreement, and Israel will be forced to take action. Katz emphasized that Israel is committed to enforcing the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon without compromise. He stated that the first condition for the ceasefire agreement, established on November 27 following a two-month conflict, is the complete withdrawal of Hezbollah to north of the Litani River, the full disarmament, and the destruction of the group's infrastructure in the region by the Lebanese army, conditions which have not yet been met. Katz's remarks come amid ongoing accusations from both sides of violating the ceasefire, with Israel aiming to ensure the safe return of its northern residents to their homes.
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Similar markets
Residents return • 25%
New relocation plan • 25%
Partial return • 25%
Residents remain displaced • 25%
Policy modification • 25%
Policy reversal • 25%
Increased policy severity • 25%
Policy continuation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
Increased border security • 25%
Israel maintains presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel withdraws • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
