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What will be the status of hostages in Gaza by January 20, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostages remain but negotiations continue • 25%
Official announcements from involved parties or credible news sources
Story
Trump Warns Hamas: Release Hostages by January 20 or 'There Will Be Hell to Pay'
Jan 7, 2025, 05:32 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to Hamas, stating that if hostages held in Gaza are not released by the time he takes office on January 20, "all hell will break out in the Middle East." In an interview on the Hugh Hewitt show, Trump emphasized that "there will be hell to pay" if the hostages are not returned, adding that the situation would not be good for Hamas or anyone else. His Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, echoed the urgency of the situation, expressing hope for a hostage deal before the inauguration. The hostages have been held since the October 7 attacks, and Trump has reiterated his demands for their immediate release.
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Similar markets
Transferred to another location • 25%
Gaza • 25%
Released • 25%
Unknown • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Hostage situation unresolved • 25%
Majority confirmed alive • 25%
Majority confirmed dead • 25%
Status unchanged • 25%
All hostages confirmed alive • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
Successful ceasefire and all hostages released • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Partial release • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Some hostages liberated • 25%
Unknown status • 25%
No hostages liberated • 25%
All hostages liberated • 25%