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What will be the status of a vaccine for H5N1 bird flu by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Vaccine approved and in use • 25%
Vaccine in clinical trials • 25%
Vaccine in development but not in trials • 25%
No vaccine development • 25%
Announcements from pharmaceutical companies or health organizations
Story
CDC Assesses Moderate Pandemic Potential of H5N1 Bird Flu
Aug 9, 2024, 07:47 PM
Health officials are expressing concern about the potential for simultaneous infections of bird flu and seasonal flu, which could lead to the viruses exchanging genetic material through reassortment. This process could create a new pathogenic strain capable of causing a pandemic. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has conducted a pandemic risk assessment, finding that the H5N1 bird flu virus, which infected a person in Texas, poses a 'moderate' pandemic potential. This assessment aligns with previous evaluations of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses. Despite a slight increase in the estimated risk, the CDC maintains that the threat to the general public remains low.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Widely available vaccine • 25%
Limited availability vaccine • 25%
No vaccine developed • 25%
Other interventions prioritized • 25%
WHO • 25%
CDC • 25%
European Medicines Agency (EMA) • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes, by a major pharmaceutical company • 25%
Yes, by a government agency • 25%
Yes, by a university or research institution • 25%
No vaccine developed • 25%
Pfizer • 25%
Moderna • 25%
Johnson & Johnson • 25%
Other • 25%