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What will be the response of major drone manufacturers to China's new export controls by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Compliance with new regulations • 25%
Relocation of production facilities • 25%
Lobbying against the regulations • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Official statements from drone manufacturers or industry reports
Story
China Revises Drone Export Controls on Civilian Drones for Military, Terrorist Use Starting September 1
Jul 31, 2024, 02:56 PM
China has announced significant revisions to its drone export controls, set to take effect on September 1. The new measures will prohibit the export of civilian drones that could be repurposed for military activities or terrorist purposes. Specific drone components, including high-precision inertial measuring units, synthetic-aperture radar, and engines with an output above 16 kilowatts, will also be restricted. The Ministry of Commerce stated that these changes are intended to safeguard national security and align with international practices. This move comes amid growing criticism from the US and its allies over China's perceived support for Russia's military efforts in Ukraine. Beijing emphasized that the restrictions are meant to prevent the misuse of drones in conflicts and other non-peaceful activities.
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Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
Trade negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant Positive Impact • 25%
Moderate Positive Impact • 25%
No Significant Impact • 25%
Negative Impact • 25%
United States • 25%
European Union • 25%
India • 25%
Other • 25%
China's market share increases • 25%
China's market share decreases • 25%
China's market share remains the same • 25%
Inconclusive data • 25%
Sanctions • 33%
Diplomatic actions • 33%
No significant response • 33%
Stockpiling restricted items • 25%
Developing domestic alternatives • 25%
Seeking international partnerships • 25%
Legal action against US • 25%
File WTO complaint • 25%
Impose retaliatory sanctions • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Continued sanctions • 25%
Escalation to broader trade conflict • 25%
Resolution through international mediation • 25%
Increase restrictions • 25%
Decrease restrictions • 25%
No change • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Condemnation by NATO • 25%
UN resolution proposed • 25%
Support for EU from G7 • 25%
No significant action • 25%