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What will be the primary target of Iranian cyberattacks in the 2024 US election by November 5, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Trump campaign • 25%
Biden-Harris campaign • 25%
Both equally • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from cybersecurity firms, FBI, or other credible sources
Story
US Intelligence: Iran Behind Hack-and-Leak on Trump, Biden-Harris Campaigns
Aug 19, 2024, 10:01 PM
The U.S. intelligence community has formally attributed the hack-and-leak operation targeting Donald Trump's presidential campaign to Iran. This marks the first official confirmation of foreign involvement in the cyberattack. The hacking attempts, which also targeted the Biden-Harris campaign, were part of a broader Iranian effort to influence the 2024 U.S. presidential election. According to Google, the Iranian government-backed group APT42, linked to the Revolutionary Guard, has been conducting phishing attacks since May, targeting personal email accounts associated with both campaigns. The FBI and other intelligence agencies have observed increasingly aggressive Iranian cyber activities during this election cycle.
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Campaign staffers • 25%
Local government officials • 25%
Federal government officials • 25%
Other • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Other candidates • 25%
Trump Campaign • 25%
Biden Campaign • 25%
Harris Campaign • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic actions • 25%
Cyber countermeasures • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Spear Phishing Attacks • 25%
Fake News Sites • 25%
Disinformation Campaigns • 25%
AI-Generated Content • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Election infrastructure • 25%
Government agencies • 25%
Media organizations • 25%
Private sector companies • 25%
Hacking • 25%
Disinformation campaigns • 25%
Financial interference • 25%
Other • 25%