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What will be the primary source of precursor chemicals for fentanyl production in Mexico by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Domestic Mexican production • 25%
Imports from China • 25%
Imports from India • 25%
Other sources • 25%
Reports from law enforcement agencies or credible investigative journalism
Story
Mexican Cartels Recruit Chemistry Students for Fentanyl Production: NYT Report
Dec 1, 2024, 07:05 PM
Mexican drug cartels are recruiting university chemistry students to produce fentanyl and its precursor chemicals, according to a New York Times report. The cartels are targeting students in Mexican universities, offering them lucrative incentives to synthesize compounds necessary for fentanyl production. This marks a shift in strategy as some cartels, such as the Sinaloa Cartel, aim to reduce reliance on precursor chemicals imported from China. These chemicals are often disguised as other goods and shipped to the United States and Mexico. The recruitment of chemistry students highlights the cartels' efforts to access specialized talent for drug manufacturing, raising concerns about the potential escalation of the fentanyl crisis.
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Similar markets
Mexico • 25%
China • 25%
India • 25%
Other • 25%
Nitroethane • 25%
Benzaldehyde • 25%
Pseudoephedrine • 25%
Other • 25%
Mexico • 25%
Domestic U.S. production • 25%
Other countries • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Industrial Waste • 25%
Sewage Discharge • 25%
Illegal Drug Disposal • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sinaloa • 25%
Baja California • 25%
Jalisco • 25%
Other • 25%
Full cooperation with U.S. initiatives • 25%
Partial cooperation with U.S. initiatives • 25%
No cooperation with U.S. initiatives • 25%
Opposition to U.S. initiatives • 25%
Increased import restrictions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations with China • 25%
Increased domestic enforcement • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Significant decrease in fentanyl-related deaths and seizures • 25%
Moderate decrease in fentanyl-related deaths and seizures • 25%
No significant change in fentanyl-related deaths and seizures • 25%
Increase in fentanyl-related deaths and seizures • 25%
Further regulation of additional chemicals • 25%
Increased enforcement of current regulations • 25%
No additional regulatory actions • 25%
Other actions (e.g., international cooperation, public health campaigns) • 25%