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What will be the primary reason for any U.S. military aid policy change to Israel by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Humanitarian concerns in Gaza • 25%
Political pressure within the U.S. • 25%
International diplomatic pressure • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. government or major news outlets
Story
U.S. Maintains Military Assistance and Arms Transfers to Israel Amid Gaza Aid Improvements
Nov 12, 2024, 06:45 PM
The U.S. State Department announced that there will be no change in military assistance or arms transfers to Israel despite the 30-day deadline for improving humanitarian conditions in Gaza. This decision follows a meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israeli Minister Ron Dermer. The U.S. has not made an assessment that Israel is in violation of U.S. law, and improvements have been noted in the flow of aid into Gaza. State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel confirmed that Israel did not violate U.S. law regarding humanitarian aid, allowing military assistance to continue. The Biden administration confirmed that Israel will face no policy consequences for the lack of aid getting into Gaza.
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Increase in aid • 25%
Decrease in aid • 25%
No change • 25%
Conditional changes • 25%
Increase in aid • 25%
No change • 25%
Decrease in aid • 25%
Complete halt • 25%
Aid policy unchanged • 25%
Aid reduced • 25%
Aid suspended • 25%
Aid increased • 25%
Failure to increase aid trucks • 25%
Failure to open a new crossing • 25%
Failure to implement humanitarian pauses • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Aid is increased • 25%
Aid remains the same • 25%
Aid is reduced • 25%
Aid is suspended • 25%
Military aid reduction • 25%
Troop withdrawal • 25%
Ceasefire support • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased aid • 25%
Decreased aid • 25%
Aid remains the same • 25%
Policy under review • 25%
Strengthened US-Israel relations • 25%
Increased tension in Middle East • 25%
Congressional backlash • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Remain the same • 25%
Other • 25%