Loading...
Market
What will be the primary concern about OpenAI's o3 model within 3 months of release?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Cost of operation • 25%
Ethical concerns • 25%
Performance limitations • 25%
Other • 25%
Analysis from tech media, AI ethicists, or OpenAI's own documentation
Story
OpenAI's o3 Model Scores 75.7% on ARC-AGI, Set for Early 2025 Release
Dec 21, 2024, 12:48 PM
OpenAI has unveiled its latest AI model, o3, marking a significant advancement in AI reasoning capabilities. The o3 model, along with its smaller counterpart o3-mini, is set to be released in early 2025 following safety testing and red teaming. o3 achieved a breakthrough score of 75.7% on the ARC-AGI benchmark's semi-private evaluation set, with a high-compute configuration reaching 87.5%. Despite these impressive results, experts caution that o3 does not yet constitute artificial general intelligence (AGI), as it still fails on some tasks that are straightforward for humans. OpenAI's o3 model represents a step forward in AI's ability to adapt to novel tasks, but it is not considered AGI due to its limitations in handling certain easy tasks and the high cost of operation, which can reach thousands of dollars per task.
View original story
Similar markets
Data privacy • 25%
Ethical use • 25%
Security risks • 25%
Economic impact • 25%
Data Security • 25%
Algorithmic Bias • 25%
Transparency • 25%
Other • 25%
False accusations of AI use • 25%
Privacy concerns • 25%
Impact on user experience • 25%
Other • 25%
Education • 25%
Healthcare • 25%
Finance • 25%
Other • 25%
Reducing hallucinations • 25%
Improving multilingual capabilities • 25%
Enhancing CoT reasoning • 25%
Other • 25%
Privacy Concerns • 25%
Autonomy in Lethal Decisions • 25%
Data Security • 25%
Other • 25%
Speed • 25%
Accuracy • 25%
Ease of Use • 25%
Other • 25%
Bias in decision-making • 25%
Privacy violations • 25%
Security vulnerabilities • 25%
Other • 25%
Tampering concerns • 25%
Stigmatization of non-English users • 25%
Internal debates • 25%
Other • 25%
