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What will be the outcome of Western diplomatic actions in response to North Korea's troop deployment by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military deterrence • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Statements from Western governments, United Nations resolutions, credible news reports
Story
U.S. Intelligence: North Korea Sends Up to 12,000 Troops to Russia; Initiative Reportedly Kim Jong-un's with No Benefits Received
Dec 23, 2024, 06:24 PM
Recent reports indicate that North Korea has deployed troops to assist Russia in its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with U.S. intelligence suggesting that the initiative originated from Kim Jong-un rather than Vladimir Putin. According to sources, North Korea has sent at least 10,000 soldiers, with estimates rising to 12,000. This move is perceived by some Western officials as evidence of Russia's desperation for support. Despite the deployment, North Korea has reportedly not received any material benefits in return for its assistance to Russia. The New York Times and other outlets have confirmed that the idea of sending troops was proposed by North Korea, which Putin accepted promptly.
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Successful de-escalation • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Condemnation • 25%
Military Intervention • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
New diplomatic agreements reached • 25%
Increased military tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
North Korea agrees to halt missile tests • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Military escalation occurs • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Successful prevention of troop movement • 25%
No change in troop movement • 25%
North Korean troops aid Russia • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic condemnations • 25%
Military actions considered • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Successful Withdrawal • 25%
Continued Deployment • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
No Change • 25%
Successful Negotiations • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Military Tensions • 25%
No Change • 25%
Formal peace agreement reached • 25%
Significant reduction in military activities • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions or conflict • 25%
Condemnation only • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic actions • 25%
No action • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
US military support to South Korea • 25%
China diplomatic intervention • 25%
No significant response • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
US military support to South Korea • 25%
China diplomatic intervention • 25%
No significant response • 25%