Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of Trump's oil sanctions strategy on Russia by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ease sanctions • 25%
Increase sanctions • 25%
Maintain current sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or credible news sources such as Reuters or Bloomberg
Story
Trump Team Crafts Oil Sanctions Plan With Two Options for Russia-Ukraine Accord, Targets Iran and Venezuela
Jan 16, 2025, 01:14 PM
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are developing a comprehensive oil sanctions strategy aimed at facilitating a diplomatic accord between Russia and Ukraine in the coming months. This strategy also includes plans to intensify pressure on Iran and Venezuela. The approach involves two main options: one set of policy recommendations suggests easing sanctions on Russian oil producers if a resolution to the Ukraine war appears imminent, to encourage a peace deal. The alternative option proposes increasing sanctions to further pressure Russia. The strategy is still in its early stages and depends on Trump's final decision, with discussions involving his Cabinet nominees, former sanctions officials, and conservative think tanks. Brent futures have gained almost $5 a barrel since Biden's measures were announced, impacting the global oil market. The plan also considers tightening sanctions on Iran's oil industry with a maximum pressure strategy and revisiting the aggressive stance towards Venezuela, which was adopted during Trump's first term.
View original story
Similar markets
Increase in exports • 25%
Significant decrease in exports • 25%
Moderate decrease in exports • 25%
No significant change in exports • 25%
No impact • 25%
Significant impact • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Increase by 5-10% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase by more than 10% • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Moderate negative impact • 25%
Minimal economic impact • 25%
Economic growth • 25%
Moderate economic impact • 25%
Significant economic downturn • 25%
Decrease (below $65 per barrel) • 25%
Increase moderately ($70-$80 per barrel) • 25%
Increase significantly (above $80 per barrel) • 25%
Remain stable ($65-$70 per barrel) • 25%
Other • 25%
Natural gas • 25%
Refined products • 25%
Crude oil • 25%
Remove all sanctions • 25%
Decrease sanctions • 25%
Maintain current sanctions • 25%
Increase sanctions • 25%
Significant decrease • 25%
Increase in production • 25%
No change • 25%
Moderate decrease • 25%
New sanctions introduced • 25%
No change in sanctions • 25%
Sanctions decreased • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Expand sanctions • 25%
Ease sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Maintain current sanctions • 25%