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Market
What will be the outcome of the standoff between Starlink and Brazilian authorities by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Starlink complies with the order • 25%
Starlink's license is revoked • 25%
Starlink's equipment is seized • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Public announcements from Starlink, Anatel, or credible news sources
Story
Starlink Defies Brazil's Order to Block X Amid Frozen Assets, Risking License Revocation
Sep 2, 2024, 12:38 PM
Elon Musk's satellite internet service, Starlink, is in a standoff with Brazilian authorities over a court order to block the social media platform X. Starlink has informed Brazil's telecom agency, Anatel, led by Carlos Baigorri, that it will not comply with the order until its frozen assets in the country are released. The refusal to block X risks potential consequences, including the revocation of Starlink's license and possible equipment seizures. Despite these risks, Starlink continues to provide internet services to its 250,000 customers in Brazil.
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Continued compliance with no issues • 25%
License revoked by Anatel • 25%
Partial compliance with some restrictions • 25%
Non-compliance leading to legal action • 25%
Accounts unfrozen • 25%
Accounts remain frozen • 25%
Partial unfreezing • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Starlink continues operations • 25%
Starlink operations are suspended • 25%
Starlink leaves Brazil • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Assets remain frozen • 25%
Assets unfrozen • 25%
Partial unfreezing • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
License Granted • 25%
License Denied • 25%
License Granted with Conditions • 25%
No Decision • 25%
