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What will be the outcome of the Newcastle disease outbreak in Brazil by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Contained with no further cases • 25%
Contained with few isolated cases • 25%
Widespread outbreak • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from Brazil's Agriculture Ministry or other credible news sources
Story
Brazil Detects Newcastle Disease in Poultry, Halts Exports from Rio Grande do Sul
Jul 19, 2024, 02:40 PM
On July 18, Brazil detected its first case of Newcastle disease in poultry since 2006, prompting the government to declare an animal health emergency. The virulent disease was found on a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul, causing significant concern among chicken producers and fears of trade embargoes against the world's largest poultry exporter. In response, Brazil's Agriculture Ministry halted poultry exports to some countries on July 19, as reported by Estadao. The Brazilian Meat Lobby (ABPA) confirmed that only one sample tested positive for the disease so far. Meanwhile, Chinese poultry farmers have seen a surge in their market as a result of Brazil's export halt.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Contained with no further outbreaks • 25%
Spread to other farms but controlled • 25%
Significant spread requiring national intervention • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
148-150 • 25%
151-155 • 25%
156-160 • 25%
161 or more • 25%
No impact • 25%
Minor impact • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
Severe impact • 25%
Less than 500 • 25%
500 to 600 • 25%
600 to 700 • 25%
More than 700 • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Texas • 25%
Florida • 25%
New York • 25%
Other • 25%
Less than 15 • 33%
15 to 20 • 34%
More than 20 • 33%