Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of the investigation into the Trump rally shooting incident by end of 2024?
3
Thomas Matthew Crooks•Donald Trump•Butler•Pennsylvania•SWAT•Crooks•Secret Service•Trump•Johnson•Cory Mills
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant security lapses found • 25%
Minor security lapses found • 25%
No security lapses found • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Official reports from Senator Johnson's investigative team and the independent investigation funded by Rep. Cory Mills
Story
Trump Rally Gunman Spotted 90 Minutes Before Shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania
Jul 29, 2024, 06:22 PM
Newly released text messages and videos reveal that law enforcement officials were aware of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the gunman who attempted to assassinate former President Donald Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, more than 90 minutes before shots were fired. Local countersnipers and SWAT teams noticed Crooks' suspicious behavior and sent his photograph to a command center staffed by state troopers and Secret Service agents. Despite this, Trump was not removed from the stage. The Secret Service received photos of Crooks at the AGR building 26 minutes before the shooting at 5:45 PM, and text messages indicate that some law enforcement officers were aware of Crooks earlier than previously known. The incident has raised questions about the security measures in place and why Trump was not evacuated from the stage. Senator Johnson's investigative team has confirmed these findings, and Rep. Cory Mills has pledged to fund a parallel independent investigation into the security lapse.
View original story
Similar markets
Individual acted alone • 25%
Part of a larger conspiracy • 25%
No conclusive evidence found • 25%
Other • 25%
Shooter acted alone • 25%
Shooter part of a larger plot • 25%
Insufficient evidence to conclude • 25%
Other • 25%
Apprehended suspect • 25%
No suspect identified • 25%
Accidental discharge • 25%
Other • 25%
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Part of a larger conspiracy • 25%
Motivated by political reasons • 25%
Other • 25%
Justified use of force • 25%
Excessive use of force • 25%
Procedural errors identified • 25%
Other • 25%
Suspect(s) arrested • 25%
Suspect(s) identified but not arrested • 25%
No suspect(s) identified • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Biden Administration involvement • 25%
Foreign entity involvement • 25%
Domestic entity involvement • 25%
Lone wolf • 25%
Lone wolf attacker • 25%
Organized group • 25%
Foreign involvement • 25%
Unknown/Unresolved • 25%
Setup confirmed • 25%
Not a setup • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
No wrongdoing found • 25%
FBI and DoJ found obstructing • 25%
New leads on shooter's motive • 25%
Other findings • 25%
Suspect charged and convicted • 25%
Suspect charged but not convicted • 25%
Suspect not charged • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Crooks found guilty • 25%
Crooks found not guilty • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Lone Wolf Act • 25%
Organized Plot • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Secret Service at fault • 25%
Local law enforcement at fault • 25%
Both at fault • 25%
Neither at fault • 25%
Breach of protocol found • 25%
No breach of protocol found • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Gunman acted alone • 25%
Gunman was part of a larger conspiracy • 25%
Investigation remains inconclusive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Part of a larger conspiracy • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Other • 25%
Suspect apprehended • 25%
Suspect not apprehended • 25%
Suspect deceased • 25%