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What will be the outcome of the investigation into the cyberattack on Kash Patel by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Iran confirmed responsible • 25%
Another state actor responsible • 25%
Non-state actor responsible • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Reports from the FBI or relevant investigative bodies
Story
Iranian Hackers Target Trump's FBI Nominee Kash Patel, Accessing Communications
Dec 4, 2024, 02:33 AM
Kash Patel, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee to lead the FBI, has been targeted in an Iranian cyberattack, according to multiple sources familiar with the situation. The FBI has informed Patel that hackers believed to be from Iran accessed at least some of his communications. This incident comes amid a series of cyberattacks targeting members of Trump's team, highlighting the ongoing cyber threats from Iran. CNN reports that Trump transition spokesperson Alex Pfeiffer described Patel as pivotal in countering Iran's regime.
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Department of Homeland Security • 25%
NSA • 25%
CIA • 25%
FBI • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Attribution to Chinese APT actor • 25%
Attribution to non-state actor • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Attribution to another state actor • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic actions • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military response • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Cyber retaliation • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Pending • 25%
Confirmed • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Other • 25%
Assailant's motives remain unknown • 25%
Assailant linked to larger group • 25%
Confirmed assailant acted alone • 25%