Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of the GRU recruitment scandal involving the Irish politician by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Politician resigns • 25%
Politician cleared of allegations • 25%
Politician faces legal charges • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Official reports or credible news outlets
Story
Russian GRU Recruited Irish Politician via Honeytrap to Undermine Brexit Talks
Oct 6, 2024, 07:37 AM
Russian military intelligence agency GRU reportedly used a 'honeytrap' to recruit an Irish politician as an agent for the Kremlin during the Brexit negotiations. The unnamed politician allegedly sought to undermine discussions between Ireland, the UK, and the EU, aiming to upset European relations. Despite these allegations, the politician continues to serve in the country's parliament and cannot be named for legal reasons.
View original story
Similar markets
Resigns • 25%
Faces legal action • 25%
Remains in parliament • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No wrongdoing found • 25%
Wrongdoing by X • 25%
Wrongdoing by Trump campaign • 25%
Wrongdoing by both X and Trump campaign • 25%
Mayor Adams charged • 25%
NYPD officers charged • 25%
Both charged • 25%
Neither charged • 25%
Retains teaching position • 25%
Loses teaching position • 25%
Suspended without pay • 25%
Other disciplinary action • 25%
Charged with a crime • 25%
Cleared of all allegations • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Reynders charged • 25%
Reynders cleared • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Insufficient evidence • 25%
No further developments • 25%
Additional indictments • 25%
Major policy changes • 25%
Public inquiry • 25%
Álvaro García Ortiz found guilty • 25%
Álvaro García Ortiz cleared of charges • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Support for Higgins increases • 25%
Support for Higgins decreases • 25%
No significant change in support • 25%
Public opinion divided • 25%
All acquitted • 25%
Some convicted, some acquitted • 25%
All convicted • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Convicted of attempted assassination • 25%
Convicted of a lesser charge • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%