Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of Pete Hegseth's confirmation vote by February 28, 2025?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Confirmed with all GOP support • 25%
Confirmed with some GOP dissent • 25%
Not confirmed • 25%
Vote delayed • 34%
Confirmed with majority • 33%
Rejected with majority • 33%
Official Senate vote tally published on the U.S. Senate website
Story
After Initial Uncertainty, Key Senator Ernst Backs Hegseth for Defense Secretary
Jan 14, 2025, 11:57 PM
Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa announced she will vote to confirm Pete Hegseth, President Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, a move that significantly increases the likelihood of his confirmation. Ernst, a Republican, combat veteran, and key vote, initially expressed uncertainty but stated that Hegseth 'was adequately able to answer my questions.' She added, 'After our conversations, hearing from Iowans, and doing my job as a United States Senator, I will support President Trump's pick for Secretary of Defense.' Ernst secured key commitments from Hegseth during his confirmation hearing, where he faced scrutiny over allegations of sexual misconduct, alcohol abuse, and financial mismanagement. With Ernst's support, Hegseth is now on a path toward confirmation by the Republican-controlled Senate.
View original story
Similar markets
Vote Delayed • 25%
Confirmed • 33%
Withdrawn • 34%
Rejected • 33%
Nomination Withdrawn • 25%
Confirmed with majority • 25%
Confirmed with majority support • 25%
Confirmed with Vice President's tie-breaking vote • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Tie requiring Vice President's vote • 25%
Rejected with majority • 25%
Withdrawn before vote • 25%
Confirmed with majority support • 25%
Vote delayed beyond March 31 • 25%
Not confirmed • 25%
Confirmed with tie-breaking vote • 25%
Vote delayed • 25%
Confirmed with majority support • 25%
Confirmed with bipartisan support • 25%
Not confirmed • 25%
Confirmed with majority Republican support • 25%
Confirmation vote delayed • 25%
Confirmed with Vice President's tie-breaking vote • 25%
Not confirmed • 25%
Vote delayed beyond March 31, 2025 • 25%
Confirmed with 51-60 votes • 25%
Confirmed with over 60 votes • 25%
Confirmed • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Delayed • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Confirmed with narrow margin • 25%
Vote delayed • 25%
Not confirmed • 25%
Confirmed with majority support • 25%
Vote postponed • 34%
Rejected • 33%
Confirmed • 33%
Withdrawn • 34%
Rejected • 33%
Confirmed • 33%
Vote Postponed • 25%
Confirmed • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Nomination Withdrawn • 25%
Vote delayed • 25%
Withdrawn before vote • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Confirmed with majority • 25%
Delayed • 25%
No decision by deadline • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Not Confirmed • 25%
Confirmed • 25%
Delayed beyond timeframe • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Delayed • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Confirmed • 25%