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What will be the outcome of Israel's planned retaliatory strike on Iran by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Strike executed successfully • 25%
Strike called off • 25%
Strike delayed beyond 2025 • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Verified news reports from major international news agencies
Story
Asif William Rahman, 34, Pleads Guilty to Leaking Israeli Strike Plans on Iran, Faces Up to 20 Years
Jan 17, 2025, 08:05 PM
Asif William Rahman, a 34-year-old former CIA analyst, has pleaded guilty to leaking classified documents detailing Israel's plans for a retaliatory strike on Iran. Rahman, who had been employed by the CIA since 2016 and held a top-secret security clearance, admitted to accessing and printing two top-secret documents on October 17, 2024, which he then photographed and shared with unauthorized individuals. The leaked documents, which surfaced on social media, led to a delay in Israel's planned attack on Iran. Rahman faces up to 20 years in prison on two counts of transmission of national defense information, with sentencing scheduled for May 15, 2025. The breach occurred while Rahman was working at the U.S. Embassy in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
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Strike is canceled • 25%
Strike occurs but is unsuccessful • 25%
Strike occurs and is successful • 25%
Strike is postponed indefinitely • 25%
No strikes conducted • 25%
Successful strikes with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Successful strikes with no retaliation • 25%
Unsuccessful strikes • 25%
Strike approved • 25%
Strike postponed • 25%
Strike rejected • 25%
No decision • 25%
Cancelled • 25%
Modified • 25%
Carried out as planned • 25%
Delayed further • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant escalation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Support by NATO • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Widespread support for Israel • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Minimal international response • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%